Five years after U.S. Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden at his Pakistani compound and 15 years after he and his Al Qaeda organization killed over 3,000 people in New York City, more groups of violent Islamic extremists threaten global security than at any time in history.
Terrorist attacks stretching from Germany, Paris, Turkey, Brussels, Bangladesh, Libya, Denmark, Tunisia to the Middle East in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Kuwait, Afghanistan, Iraq and the skies over the Sinai Peninsula speak to the virulent reach of ISIS, while intelligence officials and analysts say al Qaeda affiliates are poised for a resurgence in the coming year and may pose the greater long-term danger.
Obama and a terrified Hillary was in the ‘Situation Room’, known as the John F. Kennedy Conference Room watching the Navy Seal attack on bin Laden’s encampment in Afghanistan after George Bush Jr., his predecessor sent an unmistakable message that the U.S. will wreak vengeance on those who attack it, no matter how long it takes or how far it has to go.
At the time, the Obama administration has pointed to the raid as evidence that despite his wariness of foreign engagement, the President isn’t loathe to act forcefully in American interests and has dealt a drastic blow to al Qaeda and global terror. How do those words resonate now?
Obama has come under a rain of criticism, particularly from Republican presidential candidates, that he lacks an aggressive anti-terror and foreign policy.
He often responds by telling critics that if they doubt his commitment to act, they should “ask Osama bin Laden.”
But cutting off the head of the snake did little if anything to address deep problems of corruption, repression and sectarianism in the countries where these terror groups take root and spread. They point to an arc of jihadism that stretches today from Western Africa to the Middle East through to Asia, Europe and the United States.
In short, terrorism will be with us for decades and possible indefinitely. It is fair to make this pessimistic statement about the outlook of our world when terrorism takes center stage and an attack is imminent anywhere at any time. There are now more Sunni violent extremist groups, members, sleeper cells and safe havens than at any time in history.
ISIS, a rebel off-shoot of al Qaeda, is stronger globally than bin Laden’s group and it remains intent on striking on U.S. soil. Every week, we need to assess the number of foreign fighters traveling to the conflict zones in Syria and Iraq in the past few years. ISIS is far more aggressive and brutal than Al-Qaeda has ever been with hundreds of public beheadings, mass firing squads, burning victims alive and unlimited suicide bombers at hand. The ability to set up cells that can be activated to deadly effect as in Paris and Brussels — is without precedent.
Indeed, ISIS has seized the headlines with its toxic self-promotion, technological savvy and bloody attacks. Its expansion into Libya is a deeply worrying factor, not to mention its growing franchises in countries like Indonesia, Nigeria, Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
But it is al Qaeda that could be the bigger problem in the future. This splintered group is on the up rise. Even though al Qaeda’s core leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan has largely been decimated, the group’s affiliates are resilient and resurgent. They have been making strong gains in the Arabian Peninsula, Syria’s al-Nusra Front, the Islamic Maghreb in northern Africa and al Shabab in Somalia.
Despite wiping out bin Laden and his vision to become the global jihadi hegemon. Al Qaeda’s return and their affiliates will re-emerge as a more serious threat than ISIS and al Qaeda, like ISIS, hasn’t abandoned its desire to develop chemical or biological capabilities that they could use against the West.
ISIS has a much more rigid ideology than al Qaeda who has taken a more inclusive approach and has actually been much more effective since they’ve moderated over the last decade.
Al Qaeda has developed strategies of embedding in the local population and getting popular support for its goals after the U.S. successfully deployed Iraq’s Sunni tribes against them in the so-called Sunni Awakening. That experience taught them that if they minimize the gap between them and local population, it’s very hard to exploit that gap, which is key to counterterrorism.
Al Qaeda’s greater flexibility also means they’re more willing to form alliances with groups that don’t reflect their views and their come-back comes with deep cooperation in Syria with other splinter groups. They will work united with other groups unlike ISIS against the common enemy and that is something the Islamic State will not do as much. This will give Al-Qaeda the leverage it is looking for.
In contrast, to the ISIS model which is, we’ll lead and the people will follow — or we’ll kill them. ISIS reigns on fear on all accounts even within its group.
Syria’s al-Qaeda offshoot Jabat al-Nusra illustrates the point. While there’s barely a difference in ideology or objectives between al-Nusra and ISIS, one distinction is that ISIS quickly declared they’d established a Caliphate.
About the author: Scott Bernstein is the CEO of Global Security International LLC headquartered in NYC. He has extensive experience as an Counter terrorist Consultant, International Apprehension Operative, Human & Sex Trafficking Expert and a Military and Law Enforcement Trainer. He is available as a Consultant and as a Speaker. In addition to his LinkedIn profile, you can also interact with Scott on his LinkedIn group http://bit.ly/1LMp2hj.